Kazakhstan's Constitutional Reforms and Economic Policy Discussed with Top Rating Agencies

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin held consultations in Washington with representatives of the world's leading credit rating agencies—S&P, Moody's, and Fitch. The discussions centered on Kazakhstan's recent constitutional reforms and key macroeconomic indicators.

The annual meetings serve to assess the country's current economic situation and factors influencing its sovereign credit rating. This year, particular emphasis was placed on the constitutional amendments, inflation trends, population income dynamics, and sources of economic growth amid global instability.

Serik Zhumangarin emphasized that sustainable development requires not only resources but also effective institutions, predictability, and trust—principles now enshrined in the nation's updated Constitution. The document prioritizes education, science, innovation, and human capital as strategic state objectives. It effectively lays the foundation for a knowledge-based economy where competitiveness is driven by intellect, technology, and professionalism. The constitution also guarantees equal protection for all forms of property, a crucial factor for the investment climate and business development.

The economy continues to demonstrate robust growth. Real GDP expanded by 6.5% in 2025. Growth for the current year is projected at 5–5.5%, with first-quarter figures reaching 3% when adjusted for temporary factors in oil extraction.

A structural transformation of the economy is underway. The share of the oil sector in GDP has declined from 16.5% in 2010 to 8.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, manufacturing has grown for two consecutive years, reaching 12.7% of GDP and surpassing the extractive sector's contribution.

The priorities of Kazakhstan's new economic policy focus on diversification and digitalization. The goal is to ensure not only growth rates but also their sustainability through rising real incomes and employment. Consequently, active investment attraction is a key focus, targeting sectors such as oil & gas, chemicals, agribusiness, pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence (AI), and metallurgy.

To balance economic growth with inflation control, coordination between the Government, the National Bank (central bank), and the Financial Market Regulation Agency has been strengthened. A joint action program for 2026–2028 was approved in November 2025; it targets annual GDP growth of at least 5% while ensuring real income growth outpaces inflation by 2–3 percentage points annually.

Budget consolidation is another priority area. Zhumangarin noted that substantial transfers from the National Fund—exceeding KZT 5 trillion annually—had significantly contributed to inflation in recent years. In a notable shift for fiscal policy in early-2026 budget planning process government refrained from requesting a targeted transfer (compared to KZT 3.25 trillion allocated in previous year). This move is accompanied by ongoing optimization of budget expenditures.

A persistent challenge remains insufficient domestic production of consumer goods.To address this over projects are being implemented within agribusiness & processing sectors including dairy & meat livestock poultry farming & fisheries aimed at boosting output & reducing import dependency across non-resource sectors

Inflation shows signs decelerating: from % at end- down % end-Q1 . Year-end forecast projects rate below % alongside –.% economic expansion

"We have significantly increased fertilizer application volumes: if just three years ago we used only thousand tons which was clearly insufficient for intensive agricultural development last year figure reached million tons This year target million tons"

Rating agency representatives acknowledged that balancing inflation control with rapid economic growth presents complex challenges noting real incomes remain key metric population welfare

Given agriculture significant role Kazakh economy meeting also addressed sector supply mineral fertilizers import dependency Vice-Premier noted Kazakhstan hosts producers including major enterprises KazAzot JSC Kazphosphate LLP Domestic production covers approximately % demand Primary imports originate Russia member Eurasian Economic Union alongside Kazakhstan