Uzbekistan's GDP Growth Accelerates to 7.7% in 2025, World Bank Reports

The economies of Central Asia demonstrated robust performance in 2025, with the region's aggregate GDP growth reaching 7%, according to a recent World Bank review. This marks the highest growth rate for the region in 14 years, up from 5.8% recorded in 2024.

Uzbekistan's economy notably accelerated, posting a GDP growth of 7.7% compared to 6.7% the previous year. The expansion was driven by several key factors: high gold prices, strong investment demand, rising real incomes for the population, an expansion of credit, and ongoing structural reforms.

Remittance inflows surged by approximately 37%, reaching about $18.9 billion—equivalent to roughly 13% of the country's GDP. Russia remains the primary source, accounting for 78% of these transfers.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) saw a dramatic increase of 75% over the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing $20 billion. This figure is more than double the level seen at the beginning of 2021.

Uzbekistan is strengthening its trade and investment ties with China, which has emerged as a key partner and investor. This collaboration is solidifying Uzbekistan's status as a regional logistics and manufacturing hub.

The rise in gold prices boosted export revenues across Central Asia, including in Kyrgyzstan. In Uzbekistan, inflation moderated following adjustments to energy prices but remained above the central bank's target of 5%. Consequently, the key policy rate was raised by 50 basis points.

The fiscal deficit narrowed by 1.2 percentage points of GDP, supported by reductions in energy subsidies and increased revenues from high gold prices.

A significant achievement highlighted in the report is poverty reduction. The poverty rate in Uzbekistan has fallen from over 97% in the early 2000s to around 4% in 2025, measured against a lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day (in terms of purchasing power parity).

The World Bank also revised its economic forecasts for Uzbekistan upwards: growth is now projected at 6.4% for 2026 (up from a January forecast of 6%) and at an estimated rate of around 6.7% for 2027, exceeding previous expectations.

Looking ahead, average growth rates across Central Asia are expected to moderate to around 4.9%, partly due to stabilizing oil production levels in Kazakhstan.