Brent Crude Surges Past $90 Amid Middle East Tensions

Global oil prices have surged dramatically following military action by the United States and Israel against Iran. The price of May futures for Brent crude on the London ICE exchange jumped by over 5 percent, surpassing the $90 per barrel mark. This level was last seen in April 2024.

Earlier in the day, Brent had already climbed above $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024. Meanwhile, April futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw an even sharper increase of nearly 8 percent, reaching $87.6 per barrel.

The sharp rise in oil prices presents a dual-edged sword for Kazakhstan's economy. On one hand, it boosts state budget revenues, strengthens the National Fund, improves the trade balance, and supports the tenge exchange rate.

On the other hand, high volatility in the oil market poses significant risks. Price fluctuations can impact inflation, investment decisions, and financial market stability. Kazakhstan's economic dependence on oil revenues makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks and sudden shifts in global prices.

The country's budget for 2026–2028 is based on a conservative oil price forecast of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 540 tenge to the dollar. These figures are used to calculate export revenues and plan funding for social payments and government programs.