Brent Oil Surges Past $85 as US-Israel Strike on Iran Sparks Market Fears

Global oil prices have experienced a sharp increase following military action by the United States and Israel against Iran. The price of Brent crude oil has climbed above $85 per barrel for the first time since July 2024.

On the London ICE exchange, the price of May futures for Brent crude rose by 4.45 percent, surpassing the $85 mark during trading sessions. Concurrently, April futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw an even more significant jump, increasing by 7.66 percent to reach $80.38 per barrel.

The sudden spike in prices is directly linked to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a key oil-producing region. Such events typically trigger market concerns over potential supply disruptions, leading to rapid price adjustments.

For Kazakhstan, a major oil exporter, rising global prices present a dual-edged sword. On one hand, they translate into additional budget revenues, strengthen the National Fund, improve the trade balance, and support the national currency, the tenge.

On the other hand, high volatility in the oil market creates substantial risks for the economy. Price fluctuations can impact inflation levels, investment decisions, and financial market stability. The nation's economic dependence on hydrocarbon revenues makes it particularly sensitive to external shocks and sudden shifts in global commodity prices.

The state budget for 2026–2028 is calculated based on a conservative oil price estimate of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 540 tenge per US dollar. These baseline figures are crucial for projecting export revenues and planning expenditures for social programs and other budgetary initiatives.