Kazakhstan's Central Bank Holds Key Rate at 18% Amid Slowing Inflation

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 18% per annum. The decision, announced on Friday, March 6, maintains the rate corridor at +/- 1 percentage point.

The regulator's move is based on updated macroeconomic forecasts and an assessment of inflation risks. Annual inflation in February 2026 slowed to 11.7%, down from 12.2% in January, aligning with the bank's projections. All components of inflation are showing a decelerating trend.

In a statement, the central bank attributed the disinflationary process to several factors: moderately tight monetary conditions, a strengthening tenge, a slowdown in unsecured consumer lending, and a reduction in excess liquidity through measures like phased increases in minimum reserve requirements and mirroring operations. A package of anti-inflationary measures by the government and the National Bank is also contributing.

"A significant contribution to lowering inflation comes from the moratorium on price increases for housing and utility services and fuel. The impact of the VAT increase on inflation is assessed as limited," the bank's statement noted.

The key rate is the central bank's primary monetary policy tool, influencing interest rates for loans and deposits throughout the economy. Its effects on inflation typically manifest with a lag of 12 to 18 months.

The National Bank previously indicated its intention to maintain current monetary conditions, including the key rate level, until at least the end of the first half of 2026.

The rate has remained at 18% since it was raised to that level in October 2025. Prior decisions in January and November of last year kept it steady after that increase.