Kazakhstan's Central Bank Holds Rate at 18%, Dismisses Tenge Strengthening to 400 per Dollar

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to keep its base rate unchanged at 18% per annum. The decision, announced on Friday, March 6, maintains the interest rate corridor at +/- 1 percentage point.

The regulator stated that this move is based on the results of a forecast round, updated assessments of key macroeconomic indicators, and the balance of inflation risks. The bank previously indicated its intention to maintain current monetary conditions, including the base rate, until the end of the first half of 2026. The next decision by the Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled for April 24.

In related financial news, National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov addressed widespread speculation about a potential sharp appreciation of the national currency.

"Anything is possible, but we must consider realistic scenarios," Suleimenov said during a briefing. "In realistic scenarios, we are not considering 400 [tenge per dollar]. It is unlikely that we, as an economy and industry, will be able to increase exports so much and reduce imports that our balance forms at the level of 400 tenge per dollar." His comments come as global oil prices surpassed $90 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions.

In other developments, the National Bank is working on new regulations for lenders that will consider borrowers' incomes when issuing loans. The rules will involve coefficients for debt burden and debt discipline.

A separate report emerged regarding the alleged detention of a top manager from "Kaztemirtrans," a subsidiary of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ). According to preliminary information, the director of the Almaty branch was reportedly detained while allegedly receiving a bribe equivalent to approximately $1 million. The company has issued a statement in response to these reports.

Authorities have also reminded Kazakh citizens that the deadline for paying vehicle tax is April 1. The tax amount is calculated separately for each vehicle based on engine size and the monthly calculation index.

Meanwhile, residents of Astana witnessed an unusual bright blue-green flash in the sky on the evening of March 5, accompanied by power outages in some parts of the city's left bank. The utility company "Astana-REC" later explained that a technological failure on a power line caused by adverse weather conditions was responsible. Power was fully restored later that night.

Finally, Kazhydromet forecasters predict unstable weather across Kazakhstan for the weekend of March 7-9. A cyclone and atmospheric fronts are expected to bring precipitation—rain and snow—to most regions. Strong winds, ice, fog, blizzards in northern areas, and even thunderstorms in the south are anticipated.