S&P Affirms Kazakhstan's Credit Rating at BBB- with Positive Outlook

On February 20, 2026, Standard & Poor's (S&P) Global Ratings confirmed the Republic of Kazakhstan's sovereign credit rating at 'BBB-', maintaining a 'Positive' outlook.

The agency cited several key factors supporting the rating and its positive trajectory. These include ongoing fiscal consolidation, the preservation of substantial buffers of highly liquid assets, continued economic diversification, enhanced public administration efficiency through large-scale digitalization, and the advancement of institutional and administrative reforms.

S&P highlighted that adherence to strict fiscal rules—particularly regarding the use of National Fund resources—coupled with an expansion of the non-oil tax base will bolster the resilience of public finances. Measures such as an increase in Value Added Tax (VAT), improvements in tax administration, and constraints on budget expenditure growth are expected to contribute to a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit.

The agency also viewed positively an investment program launched last year that focuses on developing manufacturing industries. The scale and portfolio of projects managed by the National Investment Holding "Baiterek" in priority sectors are projected to sustain a higher level of investment-to-GDP ratio compared to previous years.

The diversification process is forecasted to continue. For the second consecutive year, manufacturing's share in GDP has surpassed that of mining. According to preliminary data for 2025, manufacturing's contribution rose to 12.7%.

Analysts project that Kazakhstan will remain a net external creditor due to its moderate level of external debt and significant foreign currency assets. The agency also noted low risks related to secondary sanctions.