Kazakhstan's Central Bank Holds Rate, Addresses Currency Speculation

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has decided to maintain its base rate at 18% per annum, with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point. The regulator stated this decision is based on updated macroeconomic forecasts and inflation risk assessments. The bank plans to keep current monetary conditions, including the base rate, stable until at least the end of the first half of 2026. The next rate announcement is scheduled for April 24.

In related financial news, National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov addressed widespread speculation about the tenge potentially strengthening to 400 per US dollar amid rising global oil prices. He dismissed such a scenario as unrealistic under current economic conditions. "We do not consider 400 in realistic scenarios," Suleimenov stated during a briefing, citing the challenges of sufficiently boosting exports and reducing imports to achieve such an exchange rate balance.

Meanwhile, global oil prices have surged past $90 per barrel for Brent crude futures, a level last seen in April 2024. This increase is attributed to geopolitical tensions involving military operations by the US and Israel against Iran.

The central bank is also developing new regulations for lenders that will factor borrowers' income into credit decisions. The new norms will introduce coefficients for debt burden and debt discipline, which are expected to impact access to mortgages and consumer loans.

In other news, an unusual blue-green flash was observed in the sky over Astana on the evening of March 5, accompanied by localized power outages. Utility company "Astana-REC" later confirmed the event was caused by a technical failure on a power line due to adverse weather conditions, not any supernatural or explosive event. Power was fully restored by 11:20 PM.

Media reports surfaced regarding the alleged detention of a top manager at "Kaztemirtrans," a subsidiary of Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), for reportedly receiving a bribe equivalent to approximately $1 million. The company has acknowledged it is aware of the reports concerning its Almaty branch director.

Authorities have reminded vehicle owners that the annual transport tax payment deadline for individuals is April 1, 2026. The tax amount is calculated separately for each vehicle based on engine size and the monthly calculation index (MCI).

Finally, Kazakhstan's weather service forecasts a return of harsh winter conditions over the weekend of March 7-9. Unstable weather typical for March will bring precipitation—rain and snow—across most regions, with strong winds, ice, fog, and even thunderstorms in the south. Northern areas may experience blizzards and temperatures dropping as low as -25 degrees Celsius.