Oil Prices Surge Past $85 Amid Middle East Military Action

Global oil prices have experienced a sharp increase following military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran. For the first time since July 2024, the price of Brent crude oil has risen above $85 per barrel.

On the London ICE exchange, the price of May futures for Brent crude surged by 4.45 percent, exceeding $85 per barrel during trading sessions. Concurrently, April futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw an even more significant jump, increasing by 7.66 percent to reach $80.38 per barrel.

This price surge presents a complex scenario for oil-exporting nations like Kazakhstan. According to industry expert Askar Ismailov, higher oil prices translate into additional revenue for the state budget, strengthen the National Fund, improve the trade balance, and support the value of the tenge.

However, this volatility also introduces substantial economic risks. Fluctuating prices can impact inflation, investment decisions, and financial market stability. Kazakhstan's economic dependence on oil revenues makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks and sudden shifts in global market prices.

The country's budget planning for 2026–2028 is based on a conservative oil price estimate of $60 per barrel and an exchange rate of 540 tenge to the dollar. These figures are foundational for calculating export revenues, social payments, and funding for state programs.